Tallahassee, Fla. – Florida TaxWatch has released its second economic commentary in a new quarterly series, titled "Florida Economic Forecast: 2023-2028 / Q2 2024." The data for these forecasts is provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), which conducts economic studies to guide business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro stated, “Florida’s economy grew by more than $140 billion during 2023, reaching a gross domestic product of $1.58 trillion, making it the 16th largest economy in the world; however, its sustainability is a question that must be asked and answered. As Florida TaxWatch pours through this data each quarter, we have found several contributing factors to the conversation, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism that must be addressed over the next five years.”
Key takeaways from the report include:
**Population and Net Migration:** Florida’s population will continue to increase but at a decreasing rate. The state’s population is projected to grow by 1.15 million people (to 24.4 million) over the next five years. However, daily net migration into Florida is expected to decrease due to factors such as natural amenities, low cost of living, no personal income tax drawing people in while others move out to states like Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
**Employment:** There are currently not enough unemployed Floridians to fill existing job openings. The unemployment rate is expected to rise over the next five years which will help employers fill vacant positions. The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from 9.96 million in 2024 to 10.7 million in 2029. The unemployment rate is forecasted to rise from 3.1 percent in 2024 to 3.7 percent in 2027 before slightly decreasing to 3.6 percent in 2029.
**GDP and Income Growth:** Florida’s economy will continue growing through 2029 but at a slower pace compared to recent years. With inflation eroding purchasing power and limiting increases in personal income, a projected per capita personal income increase of just one percent suggests declining inflation rates and rising spending capabilities for Floridians.
**Tourism:** Tourist numbers are expected to rise steadily from 146.2 million visitors in 2024 to over 170 million by 2029. Tourism supports approximately thirteen million jobs and generates $73 billion in employee wages annually; this revenue saves every Florida household about $1,840 yearly in state and local taxes.
Overall projections indicate that Florida's economy will return to pre-pandemic growth rates within the next five years due largely to significant economic growth observed over the past three years.
For further details or access to the full commentary including previous reports such as "Florida Economic Forecast: Q1 2024," visit [Florida TaxWatch](https://www.floridataxwatch.org).
About Florida TaxWatch:
As an independent nonpartisan nonprofit government watchdog organization serving taxpayers for more than forty-five years since its founding in nineteen seventy-nine (1979), Florida TaxWatch aims at improving productivity accountability within state governance structures via research-based recommendations funded primarily through voluntary tax-deductible donations private grants enabling effective responsive accountable governance beneficial towards taxpayer interests across statewide spectrums.