Florida TaxWatch released its Florida Economic Forecast (2023-2028) today, providing an assessment of various economic indicators including population growth, net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism. The data for these forecasts is provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group).
Dominic M. Calabro, President and CEO of Florida TaxWatch, stated: “Currently, Florida’s economic growth continues to outpace other states across the nation, and we also boast the 14th largest economy in the world. This formidable status can certainly be attributed, in no small part, to our state leaders’ conservative fiscal policies and strategic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the question remains: Is it sustainable over the next several years? Florida TaxWatch is proud to offer this report to help answer that question, inform additional research, and plan for the Sunshine State’s bright future.”
According to Florida TaxWatch's projections, Florida's population will increase by approximately 1.45 million people from 2023 to 2028. However, net migration is expected to decrease from 884 people per day in 2023 to 820 per day in 2028. Those leaving cite concerns such as increased costs of living and rising property taxes.
In terms of employment, the number of Floridians with jobs is projected to rise from 9.8 million in 2023 to 10.4 million in 2028. The state's unemployment rate is expected to increase from 2.8 percent in 2023 to a peak of 4.3 percent in 2026 before slightly decreasing to 4.2 percent by 2028.
The difference between Florida's raw GDP growth rate and real GDP (adjusted for inflation) is narrowing—from 5.2 percent in 2023 to a projected 2.2 percent in 2028—indicating an expected decrease in inflation rates over time.
Additionally, per capita income growth was five percent in 2023 but is predicted to rise to six percent by mid-decade before settling at around five percent annually on average through this period.
Tourism remains a robust sector supporting approximately $73 billion in employee wages throughout Florida with projections indicating continued year-over-year visitor increases through at least until end-of-decade.
Overall projections suggest that while Florida's economy will continue growing albeit at slower rates initially before stabilizing as both businesses & consumers adapt transitioning away from "high inflation" towards "high interest rate" environments according REC Group sources underpinning full report accessible online via www.floridataxwatch.org